March 2025 Market Update: A Chilly February Cools Buyer Momentum

February’s real estate numbers across Peterborough and surrounding regions delivered a sobering picture: low sales, rising inventory, and buyer hesitation. The narrative of a market recovery sparked by anticipated rate cuts last fall has largely faded. Instead, what we’re seeing is stagnation, with many communities now clearly leaning into buyer’s market territory.

Local Market Recap: Peterborough & Area Real Estate Stats

Peterborough County extended the slowdown seen in the city, with sales down 24% year-over-year and inventory levels rising rapidly. While the average sale price is still slightly above where it was last February, the gap between supply and demand is widening—making it unlikely that price strength will hold if this trend continues into the spring.

• Average Days on Market: 29 days (up from 23 last year)
• Sales-to-Listing Ratio: Approximately 78%, indicating more hesitant buyers
• Months of Inventory: 3.4 (up from 1.7)

This is a classic early-warning signal. Inventory is ballooning while buyer demand softens, putting downward pressure on prices. If listings continue to outpace sales, sellers in the county will need to adopt sharper pricing and strategic timing to stay competitive.

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GTA Trends: The Tsunami Before the Tide

As always, what’s happening in the GTA offers insight into what’s coming for Peterborough.

The latest GTA inventory data shows a modest pullback in months of inventory across all markets, but levels remain significantly elevated compared to early 2023.

This reflects a softer market with more breathing room for buyers, and as always, Durham’s data is especially important for Peterborough-area observers. With Durham now at 2.90 months of inventory (down from well over 3 last month), we could see a short-term balancing, but it's still almost double where it was this time last year.

Expect similar pressures to ripple outward into regions like Peterborough, Northumberland, and Kawartha in the coming weeks.

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March 2025 Political Climate: Growing Uncertainty and Its Impact on Real Estate

What began in February as a warning turned more concrete in early March, as U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on threats of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, citing continued dissatisfaction with cross-border security and trade enforcement.

For Canada’s housing and real estate sectors, the potential fallout is far from abstract:

• Rising Input Costs: Builders are bracing for higher prices on steel, aluminum, and wood products—many of which flow through U.S. supply chains. This could stall construction timelines and increase costs for new developments.
• Economic Headwinds: Businesses, particularly those tied to trade, are shifting into conservative mode. With hiring slowed and investment tempered, consumer confidence is also taking a hit—weakening homebuyer enthusiasm, especially in markets that rely on commuter economies or export jobs.
• Investor Reticence: With the broader economy facing potential friction, some real estate investors are adopting a wait-and-see stance. This could reduce activity in the pre-construction and multifamily markets, which often rely on confident capital deployment.

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Canadian Leadership Vacuum Fuels Market Caution

At home, Canada remains in political limbo. As the Liberal Party continues its search for a new leader following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, speculation around an impending federal election—and a possible Conservative win—has grown louder.

Why this matters:

• Immigration Outlook Is in Flux: The Liberals have driven population growth through aggressive immigration targets, a major driver of housing demand in major and mid-sized cities. A shift toward a Conservative government may bring tighter policies, reducing demand pressures—particularly in the rental and entry-level buyer segments.
• Government Support Programs May Face Cutbacks: CMHC incentives, first-time buyer programs, and affordability-focused financing initiatives could be reduced or restructured under a more market-oriented policy regime.

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Buyer & Seller Outlook

Buyers:

The power is swinging in your favor—but that doesn’t mean you should wait forever. Inventory is growing, and prices are holding for now, but some segments (especially sub-$700K) are still competitive.

• If you're looking for commodity-style homes (condos, basic bungalows), you have room to negotiate.
• For rare or luxury properties, be ready to act if the right one appears—those don’t cycle through often.
  
  

Sellers:

You need to be priced not just right—but ahead of the pack.

• Expect second showings, cautious buyers, and low-ball offers.
• If you're in a highly competitive segment (especially $600–$850K), don’t assume you'll stand out—make your listing the one that feels like a “deal.”
• In higher price brackets, patience and precision will be your strongest tools.

Look at the average days on market in your area. If you want to beat that average, you’ll need to undercut similar listings on price or outperform them on presentation.

Looking Ahead: Is Spring a Mirage?

Historically, spring brings a 5% bump in pricing and buyer activity. But this year, that pattern may break. Inventory is rising faster than demand. If that continues, spring could be flat or even further soften. It’s not panic territory—yet—but sellers hoping for a quick rebound may need to revise expectations.

Ready to Talk Strategy?

Whether you're buying, selling, or just watching the market unfold, it pays to have a clear, informed game plan. If you’re looking at a move in the next 3–6 months, now’s the time to prepare.

📲 Call or Text: 705-868-7173
📧 Email: Mitch.Cleary@Century21.ca

Thanks for reading—see you in next month’s update!

Mitch