May 2025 Real Estate Market Update:

Inventory Builds While Buyers Take Their Time

As we head into the peak of the spring market, April 2025 is giving us one of the clearest signals yet of where things are headed. Prices in many areas are cooling slightly, inventory is climbing, and buyers have a bit more breathing room. Still, there are pockets of strength - especially for well-priced, well-presented homes.

Let’s break down the local stats, economic influences, and what they all mean for your real estate strategy heading into May and beyond.

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Local Market Recap: Peterborough & Area Real Estate Stats

Despite the 6% drop in average sale price in Peterborough, the number of sales remains steady, and days on market have held firm. The real headline here is inventory: up over 33% year-over-year. Buyers are enjoying more options, while sellers need sharper pricing and presentation to stand out.

• Average Days on Market: 26, same as last year 
• Sales-to-Listing Ratio: 97%, indicating that sellers and buyers remain aligned on pricing expectations.
• Months of Inventory: Slightly higher than last year.

GTA Spillover: What’s Happening in Toronto?

The Greater Toronto Area is seeing similar themes:

• Inventory is climbing across all major markets.
• Freeholds and condos alike are trending higher on supply.
• Buyers are slower to move, and we’re seeing an uptick in time-on-market.

Sales activity in the GTA has softened month-over-month, and that wave is reaching Peterborough and surrounding communities. As always, when Toronto sneezes, surrounding markets catch a cold  - though the impact varies by local demand.

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Broader Economic & Political Influences

April brought continued discussions around interest rate policy, immigration levels, and affordability concerns.

1. Interest Rates: While no new cuts were announced in April, many experts expect the Bank of Canada to act by summer. This has led many buyers to "wait and see," especially those needing financing.
   
   
2. Immigration & Housing Supply: Federal immigration targets remain high, but new housing starts are lagging. The resulting squeeze has yet to push prices up, but could limit downside in the months ahead.
   
   
3. Local Affordability Pressure: With Toronto prices still well above $1M in many categories, affordability-driven migration to Peterborough, Northumberland, and Kawartha remains a key long-term trend - even as momentum slows.

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Trump’s Renewed Tariff Pressure on Canada: Real Estate Implications

As the U.S.-Canada trade dynamic shifts under Trump’s second term, Canadian investors should brace for increased market volatility and rethink assumptions about economic stability:

• Fuel inflation: Canadian goods would become more expensive, especially those tied to construction and development, such as lumber and steel, pushing up project costs.
• Disrupt cross-border trade: Businesses facing uncertainty may delay or downsize investments, impacting job markets and consumer confidence.
• Cool the housing market: Economic instability may prompt both homebuyers and developers to adopt a more cautious stance, particularly in border cities or trade-sensitive regions.

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Canadian Political Transition: Carney’s Liberal Leadership vs. Conservative Surge

With Mark Carney’s economic credibility signals a steady hand, but a surging Conservative Party suggests potential change in the next federal election - posing key implications for the real estate industry:

• Immigration Policy Shifts: Carney is expected to uphold strong immigration levels, supporting housing demand in major cities. However, a Conservative win could mean reduced immigration targets, potentially softening rental and resale demand, especially in urban markets like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary.
• Housing Program Uncertainty: Liberal-backed programs such as CMHC financing and first-time buyer incentives remain intact under Carney. But a future Conservative government may scale back federal supports, tightening mortgage access and affordability.
  
  

Seasonal Timing: List Now or Wait?

As we mentioned in past updates, March through May is historically the best time to list. With inventory climbing and many buyers still on the fence, your window to stand out before the summer glut is now.

If your home isn’t getting at least 3+ showings per week, consider a price reduction, staging tweaks, or marketing refresh.

Final Thoughts: What We’re Watching in May

• Buyer Psychology: Are rate cut rumours enough to bring fence-sitters back?
• Listing Pressure: Will May bring another wave of new inventory?
• Political Changes: The impact of a new government on immigration and housing programs.
• Economic Uncertainty: Tariffs, inflation, and interest rate changes will all play a role in shaping the market.

The market is shifting, not crashing - and that nuance matters. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the horizon, staying informed is your best asset.

If you’re planning a move this year, let’s get the conversation started.

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📲 Call or Text: 705-868-7173
📧 Email: Mitch.Cleary@Century21.ca

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Let’s make your next move a smart one.

Take care everybody!

Mitch